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Around 1.5 million Palestinian civilians are currently squeezed into the southern Gaza city of Rafah after repeatedly being forced by Israeli bombardment and ground assaults to evacuate further and further south.

The town, which originally had a population of 250,000, is now host to more than half of Gaza鈥檚 entire population. They are sheltering in conditions the UN鈥檚 top aid official聽聽鈥渁bysmal鈥�, with disease spreading and famine looming.

In a military onslaught the International Court of Justice has聽聽a plausible case of genocide, Israel has so far killed over 29,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Now there are increasing fears Israel鈥檚 expected ground assault on Rafah could push civilians across the border into Egypt鈥檚 Sinai Peninsula.

Originally designated as a 鈥渟afe zone鈥�, Rafah is now being聽聽by Israeli airstrikes, as well. Those fleeing the violence have nowhere safe to go.

However, Egypt, the only country aside from Israel that has a border with Gaza, has rebuffed pressure to accept Palestinian refugees displaced by Israel.

聽have indicated that Israeli officials have tried to lobby international support to聽聽to accept refugees from Gaza.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, however, has been adamant in refusing to allow humanitarian corridors or the entry of large numbers of Palestinians into Sinai. He has聽聽a 鈥渞ed line鈥� that, if crossed, would 鈥渓iquidate the Palestinian cause鈥�.

In recent days, the UN鈥檚 High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, has validated Egypt鈥檚 position. Grandi聽聽displacing Gazans to Egypt would be 鈥渃atastrophic鈥� for both Egypt and the Palestinians, who, he indicated, would likely not be allowed to return.

There are a few reasons for Egypt鈥檚 opposition.

The first is that Egypt does not want to be seen to be facilitating聽聽through the permanent resettlement of Palestinians outside of Gaza.

In October,聽聽from Israel鈥檚 Intelligence Ministry included recommendations to forcibly transfer of Gaza鈥檚 population of 2.3 million out of the territory and into tent cities in Egypt鈥檚 Sinai Desert.

Government ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have also both聽聽the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza to make way for their replacement by Israeli settlers.

Further, in January,聽聽in Israel calling for this very plan was聽聽by 11 members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu鈥檚 cabinet and 15 additional members of parliament.

While Netanyahu last month聽聽Israel has 鈥渘o intention of permanently occupying Gaza鈥�, he hasn鈥檛 shut down talk from his ministers about it. When asked about the conference in January, for example, he聽聽everyone was 鈥渆ntitled to their opinions鈥�.

Sisi is also conscious of the strong聽聽of sympathy the Egyptian public has demonstrated for the Palestinians and the support they have shown for his opposition to any displacement of people across the border. This is due to feelings of solidarity with the Palestinian struggle, as well as an awareness of the lessons of history.

Recalling 1947-49, when聽聽were either expelled or聽聽by Zionist forces during the war surrounding the creation of the state of Israel,聽聽to be enabling another Nakba, or 鈥渃atastrophe鈥�.

The total number of refugees created by the Nakba now stands at around聽. According to the UN, about聽聽live in refugee camps, Israel having聽聽their right to return to their homeland.

Significantly, in November, Israel鈥檚 minister for agriculture, Avi Dichter,聽: 鈥淲e are now rolling out the Gaza Nakba,鈥� adding, 鈥淕aza Nakba 2023. That鈥檚 how it鈥檒l end.鈥�

Egypt is its security. If Palestinians were resettled in Sinai, it could make the Egyptian territory a new base from which to launch resistance operations. This could drag Egypt into a military conflict with Israel.

In addition, Sisi has only just managed to clamp down on Islamist insurgents in North Sinai in聽聽and is presumably concerned that an influx of refugees could be destabilising.

Finally, Sisi likely believes Hamas could mount opposition to his regime.

After overthrowing President Mohamed Morsi in a military coup in 2013, the Sisi regime cracked down on the Muslim Brotherhood and repressed all dissent. This extended to a demonisation of Hamas, which grew out of the Muslim Brotherhood鈥檚 Palestinian branch.

Between 2014 and 2016, the Egyptian military bombed and flooded tunnels linking Gaza with Egypt, at the same time as聽聽of colluding with the Muslim Brotherhood against the state. It has also enforced Israel鈥檚 blockade of the Gaza Strip.

Having said that, the relationship is not straightforwardly antagonistic.听聽on counterinsurgency operations against the Islamic State in Sinai. Egypt has also played a role in mediating current and past ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel.

However, the latest rounds of negotiations have gone nowhere, leaving Egypt to nervously ramp up its warnings around any Israeli moves on the border.

Egypt and Israel have had a peace treaty since 1979, and their relationship has become stronger with Sisi in power. However,聽聽to suspend the peace treaty if Rafah is invaded.

Netanyahu has聽聽to push ahead with a ground incursion of Rafah in the coming weeks.

Concurrently, Egypt has moved to fortify its border and, according to reports and satellite images, begun building a聽聽of about 21 square kilometres in the Sinai. This suggests Egypt is聽聽for a potential removal or exodus of Palestinians.

While it isn鈥檛 entirely clear whether this is being done in co-ordination with Israel or as a聽, the zone would condemn Gazans to yet another densely packed open-air prison with dire human rights implications.

As much as states like Egypt and聽聽have strengthened their rhetorical opposition to Israel in the past few months, neighbouring Arab countries have done little to seriously pressure Israel to halt its military operations or significantly improve aid access to the Gaza Strip.

In fact, Egypt鈥檚聽聽of the Rafah crossing have delayed the entry of desperately needed aid into Gaza. There are also聽聽Egyptian authorities are demanding thousands of dollars in bribes from those desperate to leave via Rafah, deepening a sense of cynicism, despair and, ultimately, abandonment.

This piece was written by Postdoctoral Research Associate in the School of Social and Political Sciences, Dr Liyana Kayali. It was originally published in .听

Hero image:聽Smoke rises after Israeli air strikes in Gaza.听Anas-Mohammed/Shutterstock.