The politics of an unsettled energy transition
By Sophie Webber, School of Geosciences and Gareth Bryant, School of Social and Political Sciences
Australia is undergoing a globally significant renewable energy transformation. Rapid growth in large-scale renewable installations in recent years through solar and wind farms and sustained growth in the rooftop solar market has transformed Australia鈥檚 energy mix.
For brief periods in 2022, when just five years ago peak renewables maxed out around 30%. In South Australia, and for 180 days in 2021 the state was able to meet its total electricity demands from renewable sources, aided by batteries. As the , a renewable energy future in Australia is both urgent, but also now 鈥榠nevitable鈥�. The different institutional, regulatory and market bodies that govern Australia鈥檚 electricity and infrastructure now work towards a of supplying affordable, reliable and low-emissions electricity to the grid.
This was the celebratory mode and mood of the recent . NSW Treasurer and Minister for Energy, Matt Kean, promoted the work of the NSW Government with its , (REZs), and plans for , which pave an ambitious pathway for the state to become a global 鈥楨nergy Superpower鈥�.
Conference organisers and panellists exclaimed: 鈥渨e鈥檙e actually doing stuff!鈥�; so much stuff, in fact, that the current Australian energy market is now one of the most dynamic in the world, particularly at the household scale. Different presenters showed graphs depicting Australia鈥檚 future energy mix, with growing proportions of wind and solar in the decades ahead, eclipsing the soon miniscule role of fossil fuels in powering the nation (). They argued: 2022 was the year in which wind, solar and batteries were 鈥渟ettled鈥� as the power source of the future, with their rise assured by the rapidly decreasing costs of new renewable installations. While not ready to declare , the message of the conference was: the renewable energy transition is happening now, so get on board.
There are many reasons that regulators, engineers and politicians might promote this self-congratulatory account of the current state of the renewable energy transition in Australia. But, away from the main stage 鈥� and within the growing body of research examining the unfolding transition across Australian , and 鈥� fractures in this view emerge. While many of the conference participants acknowledged 鈥� indeed, fixated on 鈥� the technical problems with managing peak load in distributed electricity systems and the , there are more fundamental challenges for Australia鈥檚 renewable energy transition. In particular, the renewable energy transition must grapple with the politics of land, labour and finance in the transition to net zero emissions. Let鈥檚 briefly consider each in turn. 聽
For brief periods in 2022, renewables powered two thirds of the (nearly national) electricity grid when just five years ago peak renewables maxed out around 30%.
Land
The renewable energy transition is happening on First Nations lands and waters: This is a point not well communicated in, for instance, AEMO鈥檚 step-wise Integrated Systems Plan (), which maps development for the nearly national grid, and locates the large scale installations and transmission lines that will be necessary to reach net zero emissions. Nor is the Aboriginal land estate considered in the State鈥檚 plan for critical mineral exploration, extraction, processing and value add hubs ().
But, as , Indigenous-owned land will be an essential component in a variety of requisite technologies for renewable energy generation, storage and transportation. The NSW REZs do stipulate as part of an Indigenous Procurement Policy. At a minimum, then, the renewable energy transitions creates , but can it more expansively works towards self-determination, and even decolonisation? Can there be not only First Nations participation, but control?
Labour
Who is going to build this transition? Infrastructure Australia describes an 鈥� across the nation. Over the next decade, as each state looks to significantly expand its capacity for large-scale renewable energy installations, this infrastructure crunch will intensify with significant impacts on skilled labour availability.
that labour demand exceeds supply acutely during peak construction periods in each of the REZs. A shortage of skills supply will become even more pronounced as renewable energy infrastructure construction booms globally. Some commentators remain sceptical as to whether planned installations will be built as projected.
鈥樷�� programs aim to shift workers in highly polluting industries to greener ones, where coal communities in, for instance, and , are revitalised through access to employment in renewable energy industries. One of the goals of the REZs is to secure employment for affected workers. However, projections of construction activity in renewable energy industries indicates that there will be a boom in work over the next decade 鈥� which labour projections indicate will not be easily met 鈥� and then a rapid decline as more minimal operations and maintenance requirements continue.
Meeting these jobs will require an increase in training programs and detailed planning of timelines. In addition to the quantitative questions of work are more important ones about quality: much of the labour force constructing renewable energy installations face , and patterns of gendered and racialised exploitation are emerging . Not all .
... Patterns of gendered and racialised exploitation are emerging across the supply chain. Not all green jobs are good jobs.
Finance
In , we鈥檝e considered , and what these financial relations mean for the social and environmental impacts of how infrastructure is built. In short, who pays 鈥� whether the state, a combination of state and market through public-private partnerships, or new collectives in community-based renewables 鈥� matters for renewable energy installations. However, these considerations were curiously absent from the conference, despite Australia hosting one of the world鈥檚 largest green banks, the , which has acted as a global model for blending public and private finance.
NSW and Victoria have adopted contrasting financing models in their ambitious renewable energy investment pipelines. Victoria aims to reverse undertaken in the 1990s , and will re-establish the much maligned State Electricity Commission. In contrast, while the NSW Government has been key to the establishment of the REZs and the turbo-charging of renewables more generally, it positions the role of governments as the private sector, which will finance, build and operate these installations. Understanding the financial, social and environmental effects of financing models for renewable energy will be a crucial area of future research.
While the last year has seen dramatic changes in the renewable energy landscape of Australia, the social, environmental and economic stakes of these changes remain high. The renewable energy transition is far from settled.
Sophie Webber is a Senior Lecturer and ARC DECRA Research Fellow in Geography in the School of Geosciences at The University of Sydney. Sophie studies the politics and economies of climate change adaptation and resilience, primarily in the Pacific region and Southeast Asia.
Gareth Bryant is a Senior Lecturer and ARC DECRA Research Fellow in the Discipline of Political Economy in the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Sydney. Gareth studies how public policy and public finance can create more sustainable, equal and democratic economies.
Header image: Albany Wind Farm via Shutterstock, ID: 1441763480.