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It has not yet been a week since the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump 鈥� in which the Democrat was widely held to have bested the Republican 鈥� and the US presidential election has been dominated by whether Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, eat dogs and cats; pop superstar Taylor Swift endorsing Harris and Walz followed by Trump posting 鈥淚 HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!鈥� on his social media site; and now a second assassination attempt on Trump.

While there is plenty of heat and noise around, will any of it matter on election day on November 5?

For the second time in only two months, it appears Trump has survived an attempt on his life, this time by听听an 鈥淎K-47-style rifle鈥�.

Though details are still emerging, 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh was听听within a few hundred yards of the former president while he was playing golf in Florida. However, unlike the July 13 assassination attempt on Trump, the alleged assailant was identified and pursued by secret service officers before he could even fire a shot. Trump was uninjured.

Unfortunately, assassination听听in US politics. After all, every US president in modern history 鈥� including Joe Biden 鈥� has faced assassination attempts of various kinds. The more rare instance is when attempted assassins come as close to being successful as the July 2024 assailant did.

Perhaps the line that received the most traction from the presidential debate was Trump鈥檚 unfounded claim that in Springfield, Ohio, Haitian immigrants were 鈥渆ating鈥� dogs and cats, after his running mate JD Vance first made the claims.

Despite officials in the town repeatedly denying it was happening, Vance later听听on the claims. There have since been reports of threats against Haitian members of the community.

It should be noted that in 2014, leaders of the Ohio city declared 鈥渁n emergency鈥� and announced it was a 鈥渨elcoming city鈥� to immigrants, due to labour shortages at the time. The 59,000-person town鈥檚 subsequent economic revival not only听听with a rapid influx of an estimated 12,000鈥�15,000 migrants fleeing political instability and violence in Haiti, but also strained city resources and increased tensions.

The Trump鈥揤ance campaign鈥檚 refusal to distance themselves from the unproven claims about Springfield鈥檚 Haitian community is a clear effort to keep the attention on immigration, a policy area in which the听听of Americans would prefer the Republican鈥檚 approach. We can expect to hear more anti-immigration rhetoric if the US unemployment rate increases in the next two months.

Back in July, the combination of Biden鈥檚 poor debate performance, a series of legal wins for Trump,听听of the Biden鈥揌arris administration and then the image of a bloodied Trump raising his fist after surviving the July 2024 assassination attempt led some to believe Trump was all but听听to be the next US president. In many ways, it would be hard to imagine a series of events that could have benefited his campaign more.

Then, on July 21, Biden dropped out and Harris assumed the top of the presidential ticket, giving the Democrats what many called a political 鈥溾��.

Yet despite unprecedented events in the election 鈥� the last time the incumbent president decided to not run for re-election, in 1968, occurred before the primary races began in earnest 鈥� perhaps the most important takeaway from these events may be how little has changed.

Before Biden dropped out of the 2024 ticket,听听听听had the president trailing Trump (who had recently survived an assassination attempt) by only 1 or 2 percentage points. And before Harris鈥� successful debate last week, the race was even closer, with various polls showing Harris closely听听Trump,听听with Trump, or even slightly听听of the former president.

In the same way the July 13 assassination attempt saw Trump鈥檚 approval rating increasing by less than 2 percentage points, the polls after Harris鈥� debate performance appear to have on average only shifted in her favour by less than a听.

Half a year ago 鈥� and many political lifetimes before any of these events occurred 鈥� Trump averaged an approval rating of听. Today, that number is exactly the same. His approval has yet to go below 44 percent or above 49 percent over the past half year 鈥� essentially remaining within the margin of error. In other words, regardless of events, views of Trump 鈥� much like views of Harris and Biden 鈥� will likely remain largely unchanged.

A once-in-a-century pandemic, an insurrection, criminal convictions and even an assassination attempt may feel seismic to Americans 鈥� and those outside looking in 鈥� but the听听of US political polarisation remains.

However, given the slimmest of margins for the last two presidential elections 鈥� a total of听听of Americans decided the 2020 election 鈥� even the most seemingly inconsequential events may prove decisive.

Jared Mondschein is the Director of Research at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. This story was first published on . Hero photo:听Cristobal Herrera-Ulashkevich/EPA/AAP.