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Quantum technologies: the time to discuss risks is now

19 July 2024
Understanding the question of quantum
A huge race is on to develop quantum technologies. It's important to consider the potential security and economic implications of quantum science breakthroughs, write Professor James Der Derian and Dr Stuart Rollo from the Centre for International Security Studies.

The United Nations has proclaimed 2025 as the聽. The goal is to recognise 鈥渢he importance of quantum science and the need for wider awareness of its past and future impact鈥. But why quantum? Why now?

Quantum science is both complex and weird. It鈥檚 not easy to wrap your head around concepts such as聽, light existing as both a wave and a particle, or a聽聽that is both alive and dead (until observed).

The weirdness of quantum mechanics is now being channelled into the construction of the聽, communication systems and sensors. Further down the road, it could power the next generation of artificial intelligence (AI).

We are in the early stages of an expensive and resource-intensive quantum race among the world鈥檚 powers. The competition for quantum leadership is likely to play a major role in shaping Australia鈥檚 economic and national security policy for decades to come.

Follow the money

Big tech giants, major powers and top research universities are all in a race to build the first commercially viable quantum systems. While opinions differ on whether the quantum race is a marathon or a sprint, some big bets have already been placed.

By 2045,听聽the Australian quantum industry could bring in up to A$6 billion in annual revenue, and provide almost 20,000 jobs.

In 2023 Australia laid out聽聽to boost government support and make Australia 鈥渁 leader of the global quantum industry鈥.

Over the past two years the Victorian government has invested聽. In April, the Commonwealth and Queensland governments committed to a聽聽to build the world鈥檚 first utility-scale quantum computer. The same month, the University of Sydney聽was awarded an $18.4 million聽federal grant to establish a national hub for the quantum ecosystem in Australia.

But understanding the question of quantum is more than a matter of science and technology, or dollars and cents. As with just about every powerful new technology, the question is not if but when the next quantum wave will be weaponised.

Researchers in the Sydney Nanoscience聽Hub at the University of Sydney. Image credit: James Der Derian.

Quantum science in national security

Based on聽聽(鈥渜ubits鈥), quantum technology has the potential to exponentially increase computational power, transform communication networks and optimise the flow of goods, resources and money.

Commercial industries as diverse as telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, banking and mining 鈥 of data as well as minerals 鈥 will all be transformed.

However, it is the national security implications of quantum technology that have most interested our government, and others around the world.

Quantum radar, code, internet, sensors and GPS are being fast-tracked by militaries and defence industries in all corners of the globe. Who gets there first (the quantum 鈥渉aves鈥) could produce new asymmetries of power and dangers for the rest (the quantum 鈥渉ave-nots鈥).

Quantum communications systems can deliver completely secure, unhackable lines of communication. A prototype network is already connecting聽. On the other hand, quantum computers pose the risk of eventually being able to hack classically encrypted messages in seconds 鈥 an eventuality known as 鈥溾.

Quantum AI is being developed to improve the performance of聽. Do we really want swarms of drones operating in a networked battlespace without any human in the loop?

Quantum sensors,听, are able to make ultra-sensitive measurements of magnetic and gravitational fields. This means pinpointing metals and large objects underground as well as underwater.

New breakthroughs in quantum sensing technology would have serious implications聽聽of Australia鈥檚 new fleet of nuclear submarines. It鈥檚 an important consideration for the聽聽in our nation鈥檚 history.

We must ask the hard questions now

Just about every new complex technology has generated unintended consequences 鈥 and unexpected disasters.聽,听听补苍诲听聽all bear witness to the risks inherent in an earlier wave of nuclear technologies resulting from breakthroughs in quantum science.

Given the potential speed and networked power of quantum machine learning and cloud computing, a glitch in quantum artificial intelligence could start as a local incident but quickly cascade into a global crisis.

The blockbuster film Oppenheimer showed how an聽聽enabled the atomic bomb, and forever changed the international order.

The first use of nuclear weapons also spurred a deep and engaged global discussion about disarmament, led by more than a few of the scientists who had helped build the bomb. But their voices were drowned out by a politics of fear and the Cold War, resulting in a costly arms race and nuclear brinksmanship that聽.

When asked about President Lyndon Johnson鈥檚 effort to initiate arms control talks in the 1960s, Oppenheimer replied:

It鈥檚 twenty years too late 鈥 it should have been done the day after Trinity [the first nuclear detonation].

We had best not wait to start asking the hard questions about how the next generation of quantum technologies will impact the prospects for global war and peace in years ahead.

聽is screening at the Melbourne Documentary Film Festival on July 20.


Professor James Der Derian is Michael Hintze Chair of International Security Studies and Director of the Centre for International Security Studies. His research and teaching interests are in international security, information technology, international theory, and documentary film. Dr Stuart Rollo is a postdoctoral research fellow at the Centre for International Security Studies and is currently working on the centre's Quantum Meta-Ethics project. This story was first published on . Hero image:聽Mathew Schwartz/Unsplash.

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