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Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, a zealous听听to Donald Trump鈥檚 cause, once offered an听听of how Trump should rule in a second term: 鈥渇ire every single midlevel bureaucrat, every civil servant in the administrative state, replace them with our people.鈥�

听from the 2024 election suggest Trump has a good chance of winning it. If he does, he and his allies want to be ready to run the country in ways听听in 2016.

, groups supporting Trump have been publicising plans to听听飞颈迟丑听听if he wins a second term.

Trump believes his first term was undermined by 鈥溾�� bureaucrats, 鈥溾�� lawyers and even 鈥溾��. Some of his opponents argue that government officials indeed acted as 鈥溾�� during Trump鈥檚 administration, saving the country from his worst instincts.

There seems to be a near consensus among Trump鈥檚 friends and foes that his听听听would require听听than he had last time around.

But how much could Trump genuinely reshape the United States government?

In 1971, political scientist Graham Allison wrote听, an analysis of the Kennedy administration鈥檚 actions in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Allison argued that foreign policy decisions of the United States government could not be understood simply as rational responses to external situations. Decisions are political outcomes resulting from complicated 鈥済ames鈥� played between different actors within the government.

Even in foreign policy, a domain where the US president听听compared to other areas of policy, the president needs help making decisions. Those decisions reflect bargaining between cabinet secretaries, military figures, diplomats and advisers, all of whom have their听.

One of the book鈥檚 earliest reviewers, the realist international relations scholar Stephen Krasner, was听听by this analysis. He believed it would be popular with high-level policy-makers because it obscured their responsibility for the decisions they made. In the end, Krasner argued, there is a single decision-maker in US foreign policy, and that is the president. Games may be played among the president鈥檚 staff and bureaucrats, but they are games whose rules are written by the president and whose players are chosen by the president.

Allison鈥檚 theory would resonate with those who imagine a 鈥溾�� establishment thwarting the president鈥檚 agenda. Trump is not the first president to rail against entrenched opposition in his own administration, especially in foreign policy. Barack Obama鈥檚 staff complained of 鈥溾��, a militaristic establishment that included听. Other Democratic presidents also used blob-like metaphors. Allison noted that John F. Kennedy described the State Department as 鈥渁 bowl of jelly鈥�, while Franklin D. Roosevelt听听that trying to change anything in the Navy was 鈥渓ike punching a feather bed鈥�.

But we should remember Krasner鈥檚 warnings that presidents and their allies would use bureaucratic opposition as an excuse for the shortcomings of systems they controlled. Trump was frustrated at times by appointees who听听or听听because they were illegal.

But such people usually听听in the administration after听.

Trump鈥檚 administration听听among White House staff and Cabinet positions, and had a very high vacancy rate for听. By the end of his presidency, nearly anyone who听听with him was听, and his听听was filled with acting secretaries. This, he said, gave him 鈥溾��.

The听听and听听of Trump鈥檚 people were bigger problems for Trump in the end than disloyalty and opposition. Selecting high officials for their loyalty alone could be a recipe for another four years of domination without control.

Trump鈥檚 allies have ambitions beyond enforcing loyalty to Trump, who can only serve one more term. His former Chief Strategist Steve Bannon called early in Trump鈥檚 first term for the 鈥溾��. This may sound new and radical, but it听听with the aims of conservative policy ever since听.

Congress delegates many of the powers of government to dozens of independent regulatory agencies such as the听, the听听and the听. These bodies are given the power to do things like setting and enforcing clean air standards, investigating and publishing consumer complaints over financial services, and conducting elections on union representation.

The听听of these agencies has long been听, who believe they bypass legislatures to advance liberal policy goals. Lawyers in the Reagan and Bush administrations developed听, which asserted the right of the President to fire uncooperative civil servants and questioned the听听of independent government agencies.

Towards the end of his presidency, Trump signed an executive order to create听, which would reclassify tens of thousands of career civil servants as political appointees, stripping them of their employment protection. Biden rescinded the order a few days into his presidency, but Trump鈥檚 allies听听to finally taking control of the administrative state.

Their听听is to remove public servants likely to obstruct Trump鈥檚 agenda and replace them with people committed to it. This would theoretically increase the president鈥檚 power.

However, the long term effect of flooding the civil service with thousands of political appointees听听would be to reduce the capacity of all government, regardless of the president. The quality of government services would degrade, and public faith in government would further erode.

. Some warn it would return America to the 鈥渟poils system鈥� that existed before the neutral civil service, where public sector jobs were rewards to be doled out to political supporters. But the conservative ascendancy now belongs to those who can best align their ideologies with Trump鈥檚 grievances.

The activist conservative think-tank听听听that 鈥渢he left is right to fear our plan to gut the federal bureaucracy鈥�. The mass firing of political enemies fits well with Trump鈥檚 focus on 鈥溾��. But Heritage and听听are selling an illusion that is likely to leave Trump or any other president frustrated.

It鈥檚 easy to blame scheming bureaucrats and administration 鈥溾�� for the failures of Trump鈥檚 first term. The reality is that all recent presidents have faced the same intractable problem: it is increasingly difficult to get any听听through a听. It is the failure to legislate that forces presidents to rely on听听executive orders.

Trump also had the problem that much of what he wanted to was听. While his allies are now searching for administration lawyers who 鈥溾��, Trump would also need the cooperation of judges to implement plans such as 鈥溾�� of immigrants.

The听听that Trump appointed to federal courts, including three Supreme Court justices, have certainly made it easier to pursue a听. But they听听when it came to听:听.

Trump may find that the lifetime appointments from his first term have created a new conservative legal establishment that can help his allies but is at odds with his personal ambitions.

听听of Trump have suggested he will never be satisfied with any level of power or prestige. He is unlikely to get what he wants out of a second term in the White House. But plenty of others will see it as a great opportunity to settle longstanding scores.

This piece was written by Associate Professor David Smith and was originally published in .听

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