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The University of Sydney鈥檚 Brain and Mind Centre (BMC) is warning that without concerted and effective action, the disruption caused by COVID-19 will cast a 鈥渓ong shadow鈥� on mental health. Unique modelling of linkages between social and economic changes and mental-health outcomes by the BMC soon after the pandemic鈥檚 outbreak, led to several policy changes in 2020-21. Now that modelling is being recognised on a global scale and extended through work with the World Economic Forum Global Future Council on Mental Health.

This month the systems modelling and computer simulation was听听Top 10 Innovations in Mental Health and today a comment piece was published in , led by the BMC at the University of Sydney.

Lead authors of the Nature essay are Associate Professor Jo-An Occhipinti, the BMC鈥檚 head of Systems Modelling, Simulation and Data Science group and Dr Adam Skinner, senior systems modeller of the group, along with senior author Professor Ian Hickie, the BMC鈥檚 co-director (health and policy), on behalf of the World Economic Forum鈥檚 Global Future Council on Mental Health, of which they are recent members.

In the Nature essay, the authors warn the mental health crisis is growing because of COVID-19 but the pandemic also offers opportunities to learn from the integrated and systematic approach to infectious diseases modelling and prevention.

They point out that the most potent mental-health interventions can be social and economic, for example through improving employment and childcare.听

The authors, whose institutional affiliations include Orygen in Melbourne and Harvard School of Public Health in the United States, highlight key priorities for how we make decisions to improve mental health and prevent suicides. In the essay, the authors refer to the use of an upcoming blueprint, based on COVID-19 research by the BMC and supported by the World Economic Forum, from which to customise systems models for implementation around the world to avoid the inefficiencies of starting from scratch. The blueprint is expected to be released, in , within weeks.

Associate Professor Occhipinti, with the University of Sydney鈥檚 Faculty of Medicine and Health, said that just as systems science had been used to model and forecast the spread of COVID-19, and the impact of alternative strategies to mitigate that spread, so too could such simulations be used routinely to tackle mental health.

鈥淎 systems modelling approach can and must be taken to address the significant and persistent challenges of mental health and suicide,鈥� Associate Professor Occhipinti said.

鈥淗istory has shown us that spreading resources too thin across a range of programs or taking an ad hoc, reactive approach to decision making is inadequate to tackle today鈥檚 mental health crisis.鈥澨�

Professor Ian Hickie, co-director of the BMC, said the traditional approach of using retrospective data, to identify independent risk factors, had only brought partial progress towards population-level impact, which dynamic modelling sought to rectify.听

鈥淒uring the first wave, we highlighted the need to be proactive about pandemic-induced mental ill-health, at a time when the focus was 鈥榝lattening the curve鈥� of the physical health effects of COVID-19.

鈥淢ental health is now considered as an integral part of the pandemic response but in a post-covid world we need to be smart about where and how we focus our efforts.鈥澨�

The co-authors of the Nature essay on behalf of the World Economic Forum Global Future Council on Mental Health conclude: 鈥淭he scale of these challenges behoves us to take a more progressive research path鈥� modelling and simulation can help us get a handle on such complexity.鈥澨�

顿别肠濒补谤补迟颈辞苍:听Associate Professor Jo-An Occhipinti is managing director of Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies. Professor Ian Hickie is the Chief Scientific Advisor to, and a 5 percent equity shareholder in, InnoWell Pty Ltd. A National Health and Medical Research Council Australia Fellowship supported this work, which was also supported by philanthropic funding to the Brain and Mind Centre, for which donors are families affected by mental illness who wish to remain anonymous.听

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