Sydney and Melbourne increasingly divided at homeownership level

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Sydney and Melbourne increasingly divided at homeownership level

2 February 2021

A tale of several cities

Sydney and Melbourne are becoming divided at the home ownership level, with renters clustering with renters and homeowners with homeowners, new research reveals.

Sydney and Melbourne are breaking up into multiple centres within the same city, according to the research. Credit: Pexels

The cities of Sydney and Melbourne are becoming increasingly polycentric 鈥� consisting of several sub-centres rather than radiating from one central business district, a new study by the University of Sydney鈥檚 Centre for Complex Systems has shown.

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The study, published in听, combines publicly available datasets from the 2011 and 2016 census records and the Australian Bureau of Statistics with a cutting-edge population dynamics model to also reveal suburb divisions: homeowners increasingly clustering in suburbs with other homeowners, and renters with renters.

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鈥淲e also combined large, publicly available data-sets with a model of population dynamics to simulate what Sydney and Melbourne may look like in the near future,鈥� said the study鈥檚 senior author and Centre for Complex Systems researcher, Dr听Michael Harre.

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The commercial centres of Penrith, Parramatta, Campbelltown, and Gosford further emerged as new population focal points, diffusing Sydney's population away from the CBD and creating a poly-centric city that is very different from its current mono-centric layout.

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In Melbourne, the same trend was seen in Melton, Epping, Croydon, Dandenong and Frankston.

Sydney and Melbourne are being increasingly polycentric, Centre for Complex Systems research reveals. Credit: University of Sydney

鈥淭he study revealed not only that the two cities are becoming increasingly poly-centric, but mortgagees and renters are clustering with their own, which may indicate new socioeconomic divisions based on suburb.鈥�

The study鈥檚 lead researcher Dr Emanuele Crosato said: 鈥淥ur study found that the highest population of renters are in Sydney and Melbourne鈥檚 CBDs."

"The areas of Sydney with the highest听mortgagor听populations 鈥� owner occupiers 鈥揳re around Gosford, Penrith, Parramatta and Campbelltown. In Melbourne, they are around Melton, Epping, Croydon, Dandenong and Frankston.

鈥淭he population model has also allowed us to see how, at the suburb level, populations redistribute themselves based on job locations and where the renters and house owners want to live.

鈥淎long Sydney鈥檚听arterial routes 鈥� high capacity urban roads听, rental costs have increased to nearly match those of听mortgagors, which may mean that those renting in these areas will find it more difficult to buy in those areas in the future.

鈥淭his is an example of how 鈥渂ig data鈥� can be extended with state-of-the-art dynamical models to provide insights into the distribution of renters and homeowners across a large city."

Director of the Centre for Complex Systems, Professor Mikhail Prokopenko said: 鈥淥ur work is an example of an exciting new field of research called Complex Civil Systems, and could be used to understand our cities in ways that were previously impossible.

鈥淎ccurate simulations such as this one allows us to address these and many other points that policymakers are looking to answer in the complex evolution of our cities."

DISCLOSURE

There are no competing interests to declare. The research was funded by the Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project, grant no. DP170102927. Sydney Informatics Hub at the University of Sydney provided access to HPC computational resources that have contributed to the research results reported within the paper.