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Researchers at the University of Sydney and University of S茫o Paulo, Brazil, estimate 20 percent of the malaria risk in deforestation hot spots is driven by the international trade of exports including:

鈥淲hat does this mean for affluent consumers?鈥� asks senior author , from the Centre for Integrated Sustainability Analysis in the School of Physics at University of Sydney. 鈥淲e need to be more mindful of our consumption and procurement, and avoid buying from sources implicated with deforestation, and support sustainable land ownership in developing countries.鈥�

Previous studies have shown deforestation and rainforest disturbances can increase the transmission of malaria by creating conditions where mosquitoes thrive: warmer habitats and fewer predators.

The study, published in today, is the first to link global demand for goods that increase deforestation to a rise in malaria risk in humans.

鈥淭his study is the first to assess the role of global consumption in increasing deforestation and, in turn, malaria risk,鈥� said co-author , from the Centre for Integrated Sustainability Analysis in the School of Physics. 鈥淯nsustainable human consumption is clearly driving this trend.鈥�

Professor Lenzen said: 鈥淒irecting consumption away from deforestation has benefits beyond the malaria link; it will help reducing biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions as well.鈥�

Direct links

The authors of the study investigated links between the increasing risk of malaria in developing countries to products demanded by distant consumers.

鈥淲e achieved this by quantitatively relating malaria incidence first with deforestation, then to primary commodity production, which we then connected to global supply-chain networks and ultimately to worldwide consumer demand,鈥� Dr Malik said.

The final step was accomplished by coupling a highly detailed and large international database with an established and widely used analytical technique 鈥� multi-region input-output (MRIO) analysis.

鈥淭his work goes beyond simple incidence mapping and correlations, in that it unveils a global supply-chain network that links malaria occurring in specific locations because of deforestation with globally dispersed consumption,鈥� Dr Malik said.

A call for change

The results of the study can be used for more demand-side approaches to mitigating malaria incidence by focusing on regulating malaria-impacted global supply chains.

Demand-side initiatives such as product labelling and certification, supply-chain dialogue and green procurement standards have been successful in addressing trade-related global problems such as deforestation, threats to species and child labour.

Legal mechanisms can also be a good action to malaria control, said Dr Leonardo Chaves, a co-author of the study, in the Department of Epidemiology, , University of S茫o Paulo, Brazil.

However, in Brazil, the agribusiness sector has criticised environmental legislation that obliges landowners to conserve a proportion of their land with native vegetation.鈥�

鈥淚f we lose this land to agricultural use we could greatly increase malaria risk, and the bill of each case of malaria in the Amazon is paid by poor and vulnerable families in this region,鈥� Dr Chaves said. 鈥淒evelopment never reaches the small rural producer; it just makes illness.鈥�

Declaration: This work was financially supported by the Australian Research Council through four consecutive Discovery Projects and one Large Infrastructure, Equipment and Facilities grant; through the National eResearch Collaboration Tools and Resources project through its Industrial Ecology Virtual Laboratory; through the S茫o Paulo Research Foundation and Brazil鈥檚 National Council for Scientific and Technological Development; and through the Faculdade de Saude聽Publica of the University of S茫o Paulo, Brazil.