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The proud claim that Australia may have 鈥渟olved the gun problem鈥� might only be a temporary illusion. In recent years, arms dealers have imported more guns than ever before. And last year we crossed a symbolic threshold: for the first time in 20 years, Australia鈥檚 national arsenal of private guns is larger than it was before the Port Arthur massacre.

This increase must be seen in context. Australia鈥檚 population grew by five million in the same period, so per-capita firearm ownership remains 23% lower than it was before Port Arthur.

But after a听, can we hold onto the gains made by the laws introduced 20 years ago, after Martin Bryant鈥檚 rampage in Port Arthur killed 35 people?

The story so far

From the late 1970s, gun deaths in Australia have trended downwards. The risk of an Australian dying by gunshot remains听听before Port Arthur. Research shows that murderers听.

But although Australia hasn鈥檛 seen a听听since 1996, we have no shortage of firearm-related crime. Gun owners who know each other well 鈥� be they family members or gang members 鈥� have always been the ones to kill each other most frequently.

Then there鈥檚 the killer already in the room. About 80% of gun deaths in Australia听. Instead, they鈥檙e suicides and unintentional shootings.

Although Australia destroyed rapid-fire weapons, most gun deaths take only one shot. We have yet to discover how swapping semi-automatic weapons for single-shot firearms 鈥� always the most common tools in fatal shootings 鈥� might affect overall gun deaths in the long term. In fact, that鈥檚 largely what the change has been 鈥� a gun swap.

The 1996 firearm laws were immediately followed by听, as banned rapid-fire rifles and shotguns were replaced with freshly imported single-shot firearms.

By 1999, civilian gun imports had dropped to a record low. And most gun dealers closed their doors.

In the years that followed, gun-buying climbed steadily to new heights. By 2015, the arms trade had听. Last financial year Australia imported 104,000 firearms.

罢丑别听听after Port Arthur have been replaced with 1,026,000 new ones. And the surge only shows upward momentum.

More and more

But here鈥檚 the thing: fewer Australians now own guns. Since 1988, the proportion of households with a firearm听.

The same holds true听, where researchers now see household gun ownership as the most reliable indicator of firearm distribution.

The reason? Those who already possess several guns have bought more. Until recently, the average Australian shooter owned three to five firearms. The same people now keep a larger collection, and a proportion of their guns听听into the illicit market.

Although rumours of large-scale gun smuggling to Australia are common, almost all such stories are evidence-free. Apart from an enterprising criminal band that听听to import Glock pistols, no interdiction agency can point to a sizeable batch of guns smuggled to Australia since the 1980s.

Certainly, there鈥檚 an 鈥渁nt trade鈥� in single guns and parts smuggled by post. But studies by the听, the听听and several others point to a much more common source.

When guns found in crime are traced back to their point of origin,听听that most are found to have leaked from licensed gun owners and听. This is usually by way of the 鈥溾��, a large pool of illicit firearms听who did not register their firearms after the laws changed in 1996.

Australians continue to speak as though the听听was the key factor in the country鈥檚 national about-turn on guns. But several simultaneous, largely unheralded changes could have more effect in the long term.

In the 1996听, Australia installed a holistic suite of firearm-related public health interventions. These spanned from compulsory firearm seizure in domestic violence cases to the requirement to show 鈥済enuine reason鈥� for owning each firearm (now rolled back in several states); universal firearm registration; enforced safe storage regulations; definitive denial of the 鈥渞ight to bear arms鈥�; and many others.

Dangerous backsliding

By my own analysis of听听worldwide, Australia has in place the听听and perhaps the most effective mesh of gun control measures on the planet.

As no law is effective until taken seriously, enforcement and resistance to backsliding are now key. Realising the potential of our toughened firearm legislation, police have led two decades of national attitude adjustment reminiscent of the 1980s turnaround on drink-driving enforcement.

These days, dedicated听听听target armed career criminals; firearm-related prosecutions have听; police launch 鈥溾�� on gun owners鈥� homes and seize听; lethal weapons are removed from violence-prone or suicide-risk households; and actual sanctions are imposed on shooters who ignore safe storage regulations.

All this adds up to a new generation of police and political awareness.

But perhaps the most profound change has been in public attitude. At this 20th anniversary of the Port Arthur massacre, we鈥檝e seen in media coverage a resurgence of public scepticism about the motives of self-interested groups seeking to wind back gun laws.

Dedicated, single-issue political potency remains theirs; surely we鈥檙e the only country in the world with two state political parties built and run by the gun lobby.

But in recent debates, we鈥檝e seen little but reinforcement for the public health and safety measures forced on us two decades ago by the rampage of a solitary male, enabled with a couple of guns.

听

Adjunct Associate Professor is founding director of , a global project of the . This article was originally published on